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The US Military and the CIA are increasingly concerned that climate change raises the prospects for military intervention to deal with the effects of severe weather, rising seas, drought, mass migration, spread of disease, and increased competition for resources.
In Pentagon, CIA Eye New Threat: Climate Change, National Public Radio reports today that "for the first time, climate change will feature as one of the key threats under assessment in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review. [...]"
Recent war games and intelligence studies have found that sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia will likely be the most vulnerable regions, facing food shortages, water crises and severe flooding that could require an American humanitarian relief or military response.
If they can plan War Games to manage the Human Chaos, expected from Climate Change -- Why can't we plan to minimize that Climate Change, in the first place?
Given how seriously the Military Intelligence forces are treating the assumed Threats of Climate Change -- perhaps Eco-advocates, have another "crowbar" we can leverage -- the one called "National Security"?
The prospects of unending "resource wars", should be enough to make the most staunch skeptic, pause, and take notice --
Afterall, IF Climate Change Threats are 'good enough' for the Pentagon Planners and Military Tacticians ... well then, those Threats should be good enough for Climate Change skeptics to mull over too...
Much of the public and political debate on global warming has focused on finding substitutes for fossil fuels, reducing emissions that contribute to greenhouse gases and furthering negotiations toward an international climate treaty - not potential security challenges.
But a growing number of policy makers say that the world's rising temperatures, surging seas and melting glaciers are a direct threat to the national interest.
Thankfully, Someone in high places, finally figured it out: we live on a finite, fragile planet -- with finite, limited resources.
Finally some "policy makers" are beginning to connect some very big dots ...
When fragile local resource systems [like Food & Water] start collapsing, in major ways, that just could spill over into some ugly regional conflicts -- ya think?
Afterall, its like the great 20th century philosophers, Pink Floyd put it:
"With, Without, It's what the Fighting's all about ..."
Retired Air Marshal A.K. Singh, a former commander in India's air force, foresees mass migrations across national borders, with militaries soon becoming involved.
"It will initially be people fighting for food and shelter," Singh says. "When the migration starts, every state would want to stop the migrations from happening. Eventually, it would have to become a military conflict. Which other means do you have to resolve your border issues?"
The drafters of the Quadrennial Defense Review were instructed by Congressto accept the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body established by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization to gather and report world climate data.
Neither the Pentagon nor U.S. intelligence agencies make an independent effort to assess the planet's climate [...]
In the short term, climate change may be a more important subject for intelligence officials than for military planners.
Analysts at the National Intelligence Council are trying to develop a set of early warning signs that could suggest where the next famine might arise or which countries are in most danger of being destabilized as a result of dramatic climate changes. Intelligence officials put those countries on a "stability watch list."
"Congress" is among these "policy makers" who are finally learning how to connect those very big dots? ... Well Hurray! for Congress, "Give em a Cigar ... they're going to go far ... and Welcome to the Machine ..."
It's not rocket science ... Take away a country's sources of Food, Water, and Livelihoods -- and those desperate people, may just take some desperate actions --
Who could have thunk it?
Well, geopolitical analyst Gwynne Dyer, thinks about it, for one.
From one of the world's great geopolitical analysts, here is a terrifying glimpse of the none-too-distant future, when climate change will force the world's powers into a desperate struggle for advantage and even survival.
Dwindling resources.
Massive population shifts.
Natural disasters.
Spreading epidemics.
Drought.
Rising sea levels.
Plummeting agricultural yields.
Crashing economies.
Political extremism.
These are some of the expected consequences of runaway climate change in the decades ahead, and any of them could tip the world towards conflict.
Well that "geo-poli-analyst" paints a pretty grim picture -- he must be some sort of hack, or a part-time Eco-sympathizer, on the weekends?
Well, not really, he seems to be more like one of those super-serious "War Game" dudes. "A General drawing Lines on a Map ... while the front flanks ... die ..."
Gwynne Dyer is a military analyst and author who served in three navies and has held academic posts at the Royal Military College at Sandhurst and at Oxford.
Speaking about his latest book, Climate Wars, he says there is a sense of suppressed panic from the scientists and military leaders.
"Mostly it's about winners and losers, at least in the early phases of climate change," he said.
[...]
"[There will be] huge falls in the amount of crops that you can grow because there isn't the rain and it's too hot," he said.
"That will apply particularly to the Mediterranean... and so not just the north African countries, but also the ones on the northern side of the Mediterranean.
"The ones in the European Union like Spain and Italy and Greece and the Balkans and Turkey are going to be suffering huge losses in their ability to support their populations.
Climate Refugees
He says a fall in crops and food production means there will be refugees, people who are desperate.
"It may mean the collapse in the global trade of food because while some countries still have enough, there is still a global food shortage," he said.
"If you can't buy food internationally and you can't raise enough at home, what do you do? You move. So refugee pressures -- huge ones -- are one of the things that drives these security considerations."
Climate Wars, Climate Refugees, Winners and Losers, the collapse in the global trade of Food? ... in other words, just a few of your "average speed bumps", for 21st War Gamers to consider ...
What a bundle of Sunshine this 'Think Tanker' is!
Is there any hope for a planet, who's most advanced, powerful societies -- somehow ALWAYS find an excuse, to wait to the 'Last Minute' to DO anything, significant, to change the course of Humanity?
Well maybe there's a 'faint glimmer' hope -- a minor awakening, that we live on a very fragile planet, with very fragile "life support systems" -- given the slow-motion train wreck in the Gulf of Mexico, eh?
The World CAN'T Help, but think about our long-term 'Resource Problems', at a time like this.
But our buffer zone, our dwindling lead time, "that 10 year window to do something" -- to turn this Global Energy ship around, are getting slimmer and slimmer, as our Policy Makers continue with their badminton matches -- batting around the pros and cons [on the relative merits of inaction vs. faux-action vs. No-action].
Again, they'd be wise to heed the Floyd:
"No one told you when to Run -- you missed the starting gun."
[...] "And it's not just the analysts. I spent the past year doing a very high-speed self-education job on climate change but I think I probably talked to most of the senior people in the field in a dozen countries," Dr Dyer said.
"They're scared, they're really frightened. Things are moving far faster than their models predicted.
"You may have the Arctic ocean free of ice entirely in five years' time, in the late summer. Nobody thought that would happen until about the 2040s -- even a couple of years ago."
Dr Dyer says there is a sense of things moving much faster, and the military are picking up on that.
He also says we will be playing climate change catch-up in the next 30 years.
"The threshold you don't want to cross, ever, is 2 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the beginning of the 1990s," he said.
"That is a margin we have effectively already used up more than half of. It would require pretty miraculous cooperation globally and huge cuts in emissions."
And if the world does not decarbonise by 2050, you don't want to be there, according to Dr Dyer.
Funny thing is, those Military Dudes, with those big futuristic radars, and enough CPU power, to launch and land ICBMs -- those super serious, no-nonsense Macho Men, are suddenly worried about the super serious implications of little-old Climate Change. ... Go Figure!
The Debate is Over, for those guys.
They are just simply planning ...
for.the.worse.case.scenarios
In other words for Climate Skeptics, it should be "Game Over" --
"you've used up all your lives, screwing around on Level 2" ... a Low Carbon Future was within your reach, but you let it slip away -- NOT exactly the best moment, for this Not-So-Greatest generation.
Your Grand kids will thank you, a withering planet thanks you too ... for playing along, with the home game. Pay attention now -- it's simple ...
Your Generation, just had to keep it under 2 degrees C to WIN, but with all your super-connected, super-informed networks and media, no one even thought to hit the ||Pause Button||,
pause ... and take a super-serious look at those blinking Radar Screens, warning of DANGER, just around that next 3-D bend ... just 5 to 30 years down the road.
One Meta-Problem though ...
we were Too busy ... to notice ... Too busy ... to hit Pause ... since
I-aye .... have become ... Comfortably Numb ...
And then one day you find ...
Ten years have got behind you ...
No one told you when to run ...
You missed the starting gun.
Every year is getting shorter
Never seem to find the time
